目的：分析高海拔地区年龄相关性黄斑变性(ARMD)的相关危险因素并建立诺莫图预测模型。

方法：采用整群随机抽样的方法，从西宁市部分社区选择研究对象，平均海拔2 100m，调查对象均为≥40岁人群，调查方式为现场调查。使用单因素及多因素分析确定ARMD的相关危险因素，运用R软件绘制诺莫图。

结果：本次调查实际受检人数为2 595人。高海拔地区居住时长、每天手机使用时长、白内障、高龄、吸烟、饮酒及高血压是ARMD的相关危险因素。其中高龄是ARMD最危险的因素(OR：53.078，95% CI：28.405～77.183，P<0.01)，其次是每天长时间使用手机(OR：9.142，95% CI：1.906～43.846，P<0.01)。决策曲线(DCA)表明，当应用诺莫评分体系时，预测发生ARMD的几率和实际发生ARMD的几率完全吻合。

结论：高海拔地区居住时长、每天手机使用时长、高龄、白内障、吸烟、饮酒及高血压是ARMD的相关危险因素，尤其要注意高龄并且长期居住在高海拔地区的人群。诺莫评分体系预测模型可对ARMD进行准确预测，为高海拔地区临床医师早期干预ARMD提供理论依据。

METHODS:Using the method of cluster random sampling, the subjects were selected from some communities in Xining City, with an average altitude of 2 100m. The subjects were ≥40 years old, and the investigation method was field investigation. Single factor and multi factor analysis were used to determine the risk factors of ARMD, and R software was used to draw Nomoto.

RESULTS: The actual number of subjects in this survey is 2 595. Age, cataract, living time at high altitude, smoking, drinking, high blood pressure and mobile phone use are risk factors of ARMD. Old age was the most risk factor for ARMD(OR: 53.078, 95% CI: 28.405-77.183, P<0.001), followed by long-term use of mobile phones(OR: 9.142, 95% CI: 1.906-43.846, P<0.001). The DCA decision curve showed that when the Nomo score existed, the probability of predicting ARMD was almost the same as that of actual ARMD.

CONCLUSION: The risk factors of ARMD are old age, high altitude living time, cataract, smoking, drinking, high blood pressure and mobile phone using time, especially the old people who live in high altitude for a long time. Nomo scoring system can accurately predict ARMD and provide theoretical basis for clinicians to intervene ARMD in high altitude areas.