方法：采用整群随机抽样的方法，于2020-06/2021-06选择居住在高原平均海拔3 000m地区的长住居民进行翼状胬肉的现场调查。使用单因素及多因素分析翼状胬肉相关危险因素分析，并采用R软件建立预测模型。

结果：本研究实际调查人数为1 514人，翼状胬肉患者为210人，总体患病率为13.87%。年龄>43岁、高原地区居住年限、日照时间、性别、吸烟史、饮酒史、高血压、糖尿病、高血脂是翼状胬肉的危险因素。其中长时间日照是翼状胬肉最危险的因素(OR：6.215，95%CI：4.008～9.636，P<0.001)； 其次是年龄>43岁(OR：5.348，95%CI：2.06～13.88，P=0.001)。决策曲线(DCA)表明，当应用诺莫评分体系时，预测翼状胬肉的几率和实际发生翼状胬肉的几率完全吻合。

结论：年龄>43岁、高原地区居住年限、日照时间、性别、吸烟史、饮酒史、高血压、糖尿病、高血脂是翼状胬肉的危险因素。诺莫评分体系预测模型可以对翼状胬肉精准预测，为高原地区干预翼状胬肉提供一定的理论依据。

METHODS: Using the method of cluster random sampling, the long-term residents living in the plateau with an average altitude of 3 000m were selected to conduct a field survey of pterygium from June 2020 to June 2021. Single factor and multi-factor analysis were used to analyze the risk factors related to pterygium, and the R software was used to establish the prediction model.

RESULTS: The actual number of people investigated in this study was 1 514, and the number of patients with pterygium was 210, the overall prevalence rate was 13.87%. The age >43 years old, plateau area residence history, sunshine time, gender, smoking history, drinking history, hypertension, diabetes and hyperlipidemia are risk factors for pterygium. Among them, the long-term sunshine was the most dangerous factor for pterygium(OR: 6.215, 95%CI: 4.008-9.636, P<0.001), followed by >43 years old(OR: 5.348, 95%CI: 2.06-13.88, P=0.001). The decision curve analysis(DCA)showed that when the Nomo score system was applied, the predicted probability of pterygium was completely consistent with the actual probability of pterygium.

CONCLUSION: The risk factors of pterygium as follows, the age >43 years old, plateau area residence history, sunshine time, gender, smoking history, drinking history, hypertension, diabetes and hyperlipidemia. The Nomo scoring system prediction model can accurately predict pterygium and provide a theoretical basis for the intervention of pterygium in plateau areas.